Forecast Rainfall for Power Production Management of Namkhan 2 and 3 Hydropower Plants

N. Bangsulin, A. Promwungkwa and K. Ngamsanroaj
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N. Bangsulin: Faculty of Engineering, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand
A. Promwungkwa: Faculty of Engineering, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand
K. Ngamsanroaj: Faculty of Engineering, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand

International Journal of Technology and Engineering Studies, 2017, vol. 3, issue 4, 147-158

Abstract: The objective of this research is to study rainfall and to forecast reservoir management for optimal electricity production for Namkhan 2 and 3 hydropower plants. The statistical data used is 50 years’ data from the years 1960 to 2009, which is used to predict the rainfall in the future year of 2016. Forecasting algorithms are (1) Forecasts Function in Microsoft Excel (FFME), (2) Minitab software (MNT), (3) Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS), and (4) Fast Fourier Transform (FFT). The SPSS method provides most accurate results as compared to the others, which is 2.9% different from the actual data. The forecast results are next used as input data for a simulation model for optimizing reservoir management of both hydropower plants. Simulation software is HEC-ResSim3.1, which is used for operations testing for electricity production and water regulation. The input data are the technical data of both HPP and the monthly forecasted rainfall. This study shows that possibility to use the recorded data to predict near future data, which is used as input in the optimization software. The simulation benefits a hydropower plant operator to plan the optimal electricity production.

Keywords: Forecast Rainfall; Reservoir Management; Operational Planning; Electricity Production; HEC-ResSim 3.1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:apa:ijtess:2017:p:147-158

DOI: 10.20469/ijtes.3.40003-4

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