Target regional size and structure of the population of the Russian Federation: possibilities to identify and achieve

Ekaterina A. Edinak (), Andrey G. Korovkin () and Ivan B. Korolev ()
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Ekaterina A. Edinak: Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
Andrey G. Korovkin: Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
Ivan B. Korolev: Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

Population and Economics, 2019, vol. 3, issue 4, 30-44

Abstract: Abstract The article proposes a solution of the task of achieving the target regional population size and structure, which would be sustainable in the long term, by means of managing its movement. The significance of this task is justified by the growing concentration of population and labour in a few number of Russia's regions in the current and projected periods, primarily due to migration processes. The apparatus of matrix equations is used to shape the conditions for reaching the target size and structure of the population. The article presents the estimates of the equilibrium population of the Russian Federation and the possibilities of reaching the target population size in prospect. The demographic forecast of Rosstat up to 2035 in three variants is considered as a target. For each of variants, the required increase of population via birth and immigration is calculated. The possibilities to assess the need in population inflow and to achieve the target population size by using the methodology proposed in the article are shown by the case of the Far Eastern Federal District. It is argued that nowadays a crucial element of social and economic policy in the regions should be creation of new jobs with higher labour productivity and therefore, reduction of the need for foreign labour migrants in the Russian labour market.

Keywords: population of the Russian Federation; forecasting; regional structure; migration movement; natural movement; balance of population movement; balance of labour resources; model of population and labour force movement (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E27 J11 J21 J61 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:arh:jpopec:v:3:y:2019:i:4:p:30-44

DOI: 10.3897/popecon.3.e49666

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