 A macroeconometric model for RussiaAizhan Bolatbayeva, Alisher Tolepbergen () and Nurdaulet Abilov Russian Journal of Economics, 2020, vol. 6, issue 2, 114-143 Abstract: The paper outlines a structural macroeconometric model for the economy of Russia. The aim of the research is to analyze how the domestic economy functions, generate forecasts for important macroeconomic indicators and evaluate the responses of main endogenous variables to various shocks. The model is estimated based on quarterly data starting from 2001 to 2019. The majority of the equations are specified in error correction form due to the non-stationarity of variables. Stochastic simulation is used to solve the model for expost and ex-ante analysis. We compare forecasts of the model with forecasts generated by the VAR model. The results indicate that the present model outperforms the VAR model in terms of forecasting GDP growth, inflation rate and unemployment rate. We also evaluate the responses of main macroeconomic variables to VAT rate and world trade shocks via stochastic simulation. Finally, we generate ex-ante forecasts for the Russian economy under the baseline assumptions. Keywords: macroeconometric; model; Cowles; Commission; approach; structural; macroeconomic; model; macroeconomic; model; for; Russia; forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:arh:jrujec:v:6:y:2020:i:2:p:114-143 Access Statistics for this article Russian Journal of Economics is currently edited by Alexey Kudrin More articles in Russian Journal of Economics from ARPHA Platform |
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