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On the Measurement of Overconfidence: An Experimental Study

Markus Spiwoks and Kilian Bizer
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Markus Spiwoks: Ostfalia University of Applied Sciences, Faculty of Business, Siegfried-Ehlers-Str. 1, 38440 Wolfsburg, Germany
Kilian Bizer: Georg August University Göttingen, Faculty of Economic Sciences, Platz der Göttinger Sieben 3, 37073 Göttingen, Germany

International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, 2018, vol. 4, issue 1, 30-37

Abstract: This study addresses two methods commonly used to measure overconfidence and examines their reliability. It is shown that traditional methods of assessing subjective certainty concerning a given forecast can contribute to a systematic overestimation of overconfidence. It also becomes apparent that a common approach measuring relative overconfidence can cause a distortion of scientific results. This is particularly valid for study groups in which female and male participants are not equally represented.

Keywords: Behavioral finance; Experiments; Overconfidence; Stock price forecasts; Gender studies. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G02 G17 D81 D84 C99 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Handle: RePEc:arp:ijefrr:2018:p:30-37