On Modeling Murder Crimes in Nigeria

Obubu Maxwell*, Ikediuwa Udoka Chinedu, Anabike Charles Ifeanyi and Nwokike Chukwudike C.
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Obubu Maxwell*: Department of Statistics, Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka, Nigeria
Ikediuwa Udoka Chinedu: Department of Statistics, Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka, Nigeria
Anabike Charles Ifeanyi: Department of Statistics, Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka, Nigeria
Nwokike Chukwudike C.: Department of Statistics, Abia State University, Nigeria

Scientific Review, 2019, vol. 5, issue 8, 157-162

Abstract: This paper examines the modelling and forecasting Murder crimes using Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average models (ARIMA). Twenty-nine years data obtained from Nigeria Information Resource Center were used to make predictions. Among the most effective approaches for analyzing time series data is the method propounded by Box and Jenkins, the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). The augmented Dickey-Fuller test for unit root was applied to the data set to investigate for Stationarity, the data set was found to be non-stationary hence transformed using first-order differencing to make them Stationary. The Stationarities were confirmed with time series plots. Statistical analysis was performed using GRETL software package from which, ARIMA (0, 1, 0) was found to be the best and adequate model for Murder crimes. Forecasted values suggest that Murder would slightly be on the increase.

Keywords: Crime; Forecasting; ARIMA Model; Murder; Box-jenkins method; Akaike information criteria; Bayesian information criteria; Hannan-quinn criteria. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:arp:srarsr:2019:p:157-162

DOI: 10.32861/sr.58.157.162

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