Methodological Approaches to Structural-Logical Analysis of Interaction For Business Cycles Based on The Theory of Expectations

Marat R. Safiullin*, Aliya A. Abdukaeva and Leonid A. Elshin
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Marat R. Safiullin*: Kazan Federal University, Russia
Aliya A. Abdukaeva: Kazan Federal University, Russia 2State Budgetary Institution Perspective Economic Research Center, Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Tatarstan
Leonid A. Elshin: Kazan Federal University, Russia 2State Budgetary Institution Perspective Economic Research Center, Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Tatarstan

The Journal of Social Sciences Research, 2018, 467-472 Special Issue: 5

Abstract: Traditional approaches to modeling economic cycles, which have been formed within the theory of economic growth, are based mainly on the use of complex multidimensional methods for constructing differential equations of production functions (Abalkin, 2002; Braudel, 1984; Kondratyev, 1989; Marat et al., 2016; Yakovets, 1997). In our opinion, the main disadvantage of such models is their linearity, which forms the predetermined results of simulated phenomena. The development of so-called trend models based on the use of a simple mathematical apparatus (the development of polynomial, exponential, linear and other functions) as part of conducting statistical analysis of time series is quite a popular mechanism for constructing economic cycles. No less common tool for diagnosing cyclical fluctuations in the economy is the mechanism for developing production functions.In our opinion, modern economic systems are characterized by a very wide range of uncertainties, what predetermines an appropriate analysis of a significant number of factors. In addition, the formed system of administrative markets greatly distorts the classical tools of market regulation, what forms a special mode of generation of economic cycles. Thus, the use of traditional mechanisms and tools for diagnosing cyclical fluctuations in the economy does not fully contribute to objective modeling of economic processes, what affects the methodological tools used in forecasting economic trends, accordingly. This predetermines the need to develop new methods adapted to the new realities for evaluating economic cycles and factors generating them. This paper is devoted to finding methods for solving this issue.

Keywords: Economic cycles; Expectations of economic agents; National economy; Phase shifts forecasting; Modeling; Multicyclicity; Interconnection of economic cycles. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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