An Estimated Bayesian DSGE Model for Kazakhstan
Nurdaulet Abilov ()
Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, 2020, vol. 8, issue 1, 30-54
A small scale open economy model is estimated for Kazakhstan via Bayesian methods. The model explicitly takes into account the dependence of the economy on commodity exports and also accounts for risk premium shocks in the foreign exchange market. The main contribution of the research is that it is the first DSGE model in literature estimated via Bayesian methods for Kazakhstan. The results of the model are used to determine the historical contribution of structural shocks to endogenous variables, forecast error variance decomposition of observed macroeconomic variables and impulse responses of important endogenous variables to various shocks. It has been found that the output gap turned significantly negative during the Great Recession and the negative oil price shock. The effect of contractionary monetary policy is found to be negative on output gap, but it negligibly affects the inflation rate in the economy. Risk premium shocks are found to account for almost 60% of forecast error variance decomposition of nominal exchange rate of tenge over all horizons.
Keywords: DSGE; Bayesian analysis; Small open economy; Historical decomposition; Impulse response analysis; Variance decomposition. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:asi:ajemod:v:8:y:2020:i:1:p:30-54:id:352
Access Statistics for this article
More articles in Asian Journal of Economic Modelling from Asian Economic and Social Society
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Robert Allen ().