Vietnamese Milk Industry Forecasting: A Grey System Theory Case of Vinamilk

Lai Wang Wang and Thanh Tuyen Tran

International Journal of Asian Social Science, 2014, vol. 4, issue 6, 779-790

Abstract: Since Vietnam was officially admitted to the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in November 2006, its domestic enterprises have been facing many new opportunities and challenges with energy. However, to survive and grow in this emerging market, a firm requires more cutting-edge or advantageous strategies to outperform their competitors. This necessitates the direction and goals for a firm in the way that it can predict its revenue in the coming future. This is because revenue is a specific indicator which may reflect the results of the enterprise more accurately. In this study, we apply Grey System Theory-GM (1, 1) based on the statistics provided by the Vietnam dairy Products Joint-Stock Company (Vinamilk) from 2005 to 2012 and make prediction values for two years, i.e., 2013 and 2014. The results which help enterprises to figure out the target in the near future are shown with low tolerance proven by Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE). From this study, a useful method can be provided in the case of the Vietnam dairy Products Joint–Stock Company and the results may shed insight into decision-making concerning the direction of a firm, to improve economic efficiency and to determine the financial performance of the business now, and it is the basis for determining results of operations for production the following period. These results are very valuable for both academic study and business field in the future.

Keywords: Grey system; Vinamilk; Dairy product; Forecasting; GM(1; 1); Revenue. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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