Prediction of Fatal Road Traffic Crashes in Iran Using the Box-Jenkins Time Series Model

Ayad Bahadori Monfared, Hamid Soori, Yadollah Mehrabi, Hossein Hatami and Ali Delpisheh

Journal of Asian Scientific Research, 2013, vol. 3, issue 4, 425-430

Abstract: Introduction: Frequency of traffic related mortalities is increasing worldwide. The present study aimed to predict deaths from road traffic accidents for the first time in Iran.Methods: All death statistics from traffic accidents in Iran between March 2004 and March 2011 were available for analysis. The Box-Jenkins time series model was used for trends purposes. Death from traffic accidents were predicted from March 2011 to March 2013 and then compared with the actual frequencies.Results: Overall, 21548 deaths (95% CI: 15426-27669) due to road traffic accidents were predicted for 2011 compared to 2010, with a negative growth of 7.32%. The corresponding frequency was 20404 deaths from road traffic accidents (95% CI: 9914-30893) for 2013 compared to 2011 with a negative growth of 5.31%. An accuracy rate of 93% was found for prediction of fatal traffic accidents compared to the formal reports by the government.Conclusions: The Box-Jenkins time series model is an acceptable method for prediction of road traffic accidents.

Keywords: Accidents; Death; Iran; Traffic; Prediction (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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