Iran\'s Population Projection considering Socio-Economic Factors based on a Multidisciplinary Approach (in Persian)

Mohammad-Javad Mahmoudi (), Shahla Kazemi-pour (), Mehdi Ahrari () and Ali Nikoo-nesbati ()
Additional contact information
Mohammad-Javad Mahmoudi: Iran
Shahla Kazemi-pour: Iran
Mehdi Ahrari: Iran
Ali Nikoo-nesbati: Iran

The Journal of Planning and Budgeting (٠صلنامه برنامه ریزی و بودجه), 2012, vol. 17, issue 2, 97-126

Abstract: Population growth is a phenomenon that may not be explained only by relying on economic factors. Thus, this article tries to explain population growth issue according to Inglehart-Welzel's Modernization and Cultural Change Theory besides economic factors. It also tries to take a multidisciplinary approach to project and model the strategic variable of population on the basis of socio-economic variables influencing it according to Inglehart's theory up to 2025 in the framework of three economic scenarios, i.e. continuing status quo, the effect of Subsidies Target-Orientation Law and the fulfillment of Iran 2025 Vision goals. The results show that population growth in each scenario follows a decreasing trend asserting Modernization and Cultural Change Theory on the embrace of post-materialistic values. Making the comprehensive population policies according to developmental and multidisciplinary perspectives is a must in Iran's strategic and long-run planning system in a way to project and analyze the future socio-economic and cultural situations.

Keywords: Modernization Theory; Inglehart-Welzel; Population Growth Theories; Neural Network; Institution (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://jpbud.ir/article-1-613-en.pdf (application/pdf)
http://jpbud.ir/article-1-613-en.html (text/html)
http://jpbud.ir/article-1-613-fa.html (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:auv:jipbud:v:17:y:2012:i:2:p:97-126

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in The Journal of Planning and Budgeting (٠صلنامه برنامه ریزی و بودجه) from Institute for Management and Planning studies Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Nahid Jebeli ( this e-mail address is bad, please contact ).