The Determinants of Inflation in Iran Based on: Bayesian Model Averaging(BA) and Weighted-Average Least Squares (WALS) (in Persian)

Mohsen Mehrara () and Reza Ghobadzadeh ()
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Mohsen Mehrara: teran university
Reza Ghobadzadeh: institution for manageent and planning

The Journal of Planning and Budgeting (٠صلنامه برنامه ریزی و بودجه), 2016, vol. 21, issue 1, 57-82

Abstract: In this research to show how 14 variables affect inflation in period 1974-2007, Bayesian model averaging and weighted average least square methods has been used. And also by using Vselect program optimal model for every independent variable has been identified. Results show that price index growth of imported goods is the main factor for inflation in Iran economic. In ranking this 14 factors –that achieved based on their probability for presence in the model-in turn price index growth of imported goods, GDP growth excluding oil group, lag liquidity are must effective factors.also Vselect results show that the most efficient model among every models that have an independent variable is the model that include price index growth of imported goods. Optimal model with two independent variable –include price index growth of imported goods , GDP growth excluding oil group and optimal model with tree independent variables include price index growth of imported goods , GDP growth excluding oil group, lag liquidity growth.

Keywords: Inflation; Iran economy; Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA); Weighted-Average Least Squares (WALS); Vselect programming. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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