THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EXPECTED PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDICATOR IN THE EUROPEAN UNION MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY

Mirjana Čižmešija

Economic Thought and Practice, 2017, vol. 26, issue 1, 25-40

Abstract: Business and Consumer Surveys (BCS) are used as data source in economic analyses and forecasts. In available previous researches the correlation between variables and BCS indicators on the one hand, and macroeconomic variables, on the other hand, are investigated. Based on BCS composite indicators, the direction of changes of relevant macroeconomic variables can be predicted, up to several months in advance. In this paper the correlation between consumers’ assessments and expectations and managers’ expectations in manufacturing industry are investigated. The hypothesis that there is a positive correlation between the Consumer Confidence Indicator (CCI) and expected production (PE) is also tested. It is therefore examined if the CCI can be a leading indicator to PE. The research is conducted for the European Union (EU), Euro area (EA) and for the Republic of Croatia (RH). It has been noted that the consumers’ expectations and assessments (summarized in CCI) and PE by managers in the manufacturing industry are positively highly correlated variables and have approximately the same direction of changes in the analysed period and showed a similar sensitivity to disruptions in the economy.

Keywords: Business and consumer surveys; Consumer Confidence Indicator; expected production; confusion matrix; rolling window correlation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 D12 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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