Express Delivery Quantity Prediction Based On The Grey GM(1,1) Model

Xinyu Luo

Strategic Management Insights, 2025, vol. 2, issue 1, 115-125

Abstract: To accurately forecast express delivery demand within a specific region and enhance the efficiency of its logistics management system, this study utilizes express delivery volume data from 2018 to 2024 to construct a grey GM(1,1) prediction model. The ratio-of-adjacency test and smoothness ratio test are first applied to verify that the original dataset meets the requirements for grey modeling. Subsequently, the model undergoes a validity test, accuracy test, posterior variance ratio test, and small error probability test, confirming that its fitting performance reaches the first-level accuracy standard. Based on the established model, the express delivery volume from 2025 to 2029 is predicted. The results indicate a sustained upward trend, with the volume estimated to reach 1.5358 million pieces in 2025 and further increase to 4.03 million pieces by 2029. These findings provide a scientific foundation for the rational allocation of regional logistics resources, the optimization of express delivery station layout, and the development of service strategies for express delivery enterprises.

Keywords: grey GM (1; 1) model; express delivery volume forecasting; medium-to-long-term forecasting; model accuracy test (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:axf:smiaaa:v:2:y:2025:i:1:p:115-125

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