Scenario planning: A dynamic and collaborative tool for uncertain conditions

Kevin R. Bumen and Michael D. Hotaling
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Kevin R. Bumen: Chief Commercial Officer, San Francisco International Airport, USA
Michael D. Hotaling: Senior Vice President, Aviation Practice Leader, C&S Engineers, Inc., USA

Journal of Airport Management, 2022, vol. 16, issue 2, 114-124

Abstract: Uncertainty demands a nimble approach to preparing for future conditions that are nearly impossible to forecast. Traditional airport planning vehicles such as master plans, strategic and business plans have long been the tools utilised by industry leaders to determine financial needs, identification of the physical infrastructure necessary to accommodate demand as well as the human capital and tactics required for a high-performance organisation. Traditional planning methods remain useful, valuable tools and serve a specific purpose to organise the efforts of an airport organisation in preparation for future conditions that can be reasonably predicted in a singular forecast or a range of forecasts. Scenario planning, in contrast, imagines a much broader range of futures than the typical forecast models are able to consider in traditional planning exercises. This tool has been used by numerous organisations including Royal Dutch Shell, for collaborative efforts among diverse teams to imagine numerous contrasting futures. The journey down the scenario planning pathway takes into consideration a broader range of influencing factors than most traditional planning efforts forcing a team to expand their aperture beyond the day-to-day information that drives decision making. Memories of the contrasting futures that are devised in this process rarely come to fruition in their entirety with fragments of each of the imagined futures more likely assembling to form the reality experienced by the team. Organisations are better equipped to react to events as they unfold with these memories formulated and top of mind, particularly during uncertain times. Many have come to find scenario planning as a powerful tool to drive creative thought processes and team dialogue with the results contributing to better-informed traditional planning exercises.

Keywords: Scenario planning; memories of the future; collaboration; brainstorming; leadership; strategy; resiliency (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: M1 M10 R4 R40 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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