¡°Shifting the Paradigm¡± in Superintelligence
Vladimir A. Masch ()
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Vladimir A. Masch: Risk Evaluation and Management, Inc. 94 Old Smalleytown Rd., Warren, NJ 07059, U.S.A.
Review of Economics & Finance, 2017, vol. 8, 17-30
Sharply increased uncertainty and possibility of catastrophes warrant a new approach to decision-making. To survive Superintelligence, mankind should downgrade its role - from ¡°an agent¡± that has a will and a preservation goal of its own, to just a tool that yields the power of making decisions to humans ¨C possibly Risk-Constrained Optimization (RCO). RCO is a fundamentally novel system dealing with decision-making under radical uncertainty. Instead of ¡°the best strategy¡± RCO constructs a ¡°strategy, most acceptable to decision-makers.¡± RCO develops a number of candidate strategies, filters them and presents to the decision-makers a few reasonably good and safe candidates, easily adaptable to a broad range of future scenarios - likely, ¡°black swan,¡± and even improbable. The final selection of the strategy to be implemented is performed judgmentally by decision-makers. RCO overturns upside down Economics, Operations Research/Management Science, Decision Analysis, Scenario Planning, and Risk Management. The new paradigm of Superintelligence becomes preservation of mankind. RCO is just a toolkit. It can be used in any system. But, as far as this author knows, RCO is presently unique in its capability to deal with radical uncertainty ¨C moreover, by simple operations. It is therefore irreplaceable for Superintelligence.
Keywords: Artificial superintelligence; Confidence; Decision analysis; Risk-constrained optimization; Scenario planning; Multiscenario Multicriteria model; Strategic frontier (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: B41 C44 C61 C63 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
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