The Grain Market of Ukraine: Actual State, Current Problems, and Development Prospects

Svitlana Cheremisina, Volodumur Rossokha, Olena Mazurenko, Mykhailo Selinnyi and Olha Tomashevska

Economic Studies journal, 2022, issue 8, 172-187

Abstract: The article is devoted to the current problems occurring in the grain industry as a result of Russia’s armed aggression and active hostilities in a large area of Ukraine. The purpose of the article is operational monitoring of the current state of the grain market in Ukraine and the calculation of forecast parameters of its stabilization and further development in the conditions of military aggression. The research used the information database of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, and the information and analytical materials of the NSC Institute of Agrarian Economics regarding the forecast indicators of the production of agricultural products in Ukraine in 2022 year. The production forecast is made taking into account losses of cultivated areas, damage to crops, violations of production technologies and a decrease in the yield of grain crops. The total production of grain crops in 2022 is forecast to be 53.6 million tons, which is almost 40% lower than in 2021. The area under harvest is expected to decrease by 4.7 million hectares (from 15.9 to 12.3 million hectares). The actual losses of products of the grain market of Ukraine in the current 2022 are estimated at 204 billion UAH, or almost 7 billion EUR. The biggest losses will be experienced by the production of corn – EUR 3 billion, wheat – EUR 2.7 billion, barley – EUR 0.9 billion. To determine the extent of destructive shifts occurring in the grain market of Ukraine, the actual (for 2020 and 2021) and forecast for 2022 balances of grain products were made. The main factors that will affect the functioning and further stabilization of the grain market in Ukraine have been established.

JEL-codes: C53 Q11 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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