 Modelling the demand and supply of loans in BulgariaPetar Peshev () Economic Thought journal, 2015, issue 5, 52-69, 70-85 Abstract: Econometric modelling of demand and supply of bank loans in Bulgaria, introducedin this scientific paper, can help not only decision makers in the public and privatesector, but can also support researchers and analysts in revealing the determinantsof lending, being a major factor for the economy dynamics. The bank loans’demand and supply determinants are parameterized using the Johansen (1988)and the two-step Engle and Granger (1987) approaches to cointegration and errorcorrection dynamic modelling. The main results reveal that the demand for loans inthe long run depends mainly on the economic activity, capital inflows, deposits andloans to deposits ratio of the non-financial sector. In the short term thesedeterminants are complemented by imports of goods and services. The supply ofloans, however, in all time frames is influenced primarily by changes in banks’liquidity, net interest income, capital adequacy and the producer prices dynamics,but in the long term consumer prices, market concentration and foreign ownershipare supplementing the supply of loans’ drivers. JEL-codes: C32 E32 E44 E47 E51 G01 (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bas:econth:y:2015:i:5:p:52-69,70-85 Access Statistics for this article More articles in Economic Thought journal from Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute Contact information at EDIRC. |
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