The Bulgarian economy in 2021 – 2022 – between economic recovery and stagflation concerns

Dimitar Zlatinov, Iskra Balkanska, Pobeda Loukanova (), Emil Panushev, Viktor Yotzov, Grigor Sariisky, Sonya Georgieva (), Yana Paliova and Tsvetomir Tsvetkov

Economic Thought journal, 2023, issue 2, 123-162

Abstract: The paper examines the current state and development of the Bulgarian economy in 2021 and early 2022. The main sectors of the economy (real, fiscal, foreign, and financial) are examined, and the labour market is analysed. We assess the current policies being implemented in Bulgaria, considering regional and global developments and trends. Based on specific conclusions, we make recommendations for mitigating high-risk price dynamics, preserving incomes and employment, and ensuring fiscal stability. Employing a structural macroeconomic model, a reasoned medium-run macroeconomic scenario is proposed, reflecting different assumptions about both the dynamics of the external economic environment and the expected economic policies. The analysis of the macroeconomic situation and projections for the development of the Bulgarian economy are based on key factors such as accelerating inflation, uncertainties surrounding the epidemic situation caused by COVID-19, geopolitical turbulences in the region, and the expected acceleration of investment activity through the implementation of the projects of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan.

JEL-codes: E2 E44 E47 E60 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bas:econth:y:2023:i:2:p:123-162

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