Decline in Global GDP Growth after Solar Maximums (1961–2024)

Vladimir Belkin

Economic Thought journal, 2026, issue 1, 84-93

Abstract: The article uses the methodological approach developed by W.S. Jevons and A.L. Chizhevsky. The author found that for the years 1961–2024, immediately after each solar maximum, there was a general decrease in global GDP by an average of -1.903% over two years. The correlation coefficient of Wolf numbers in the years of maximum solar activity and the subsequent decrease in worldwide GDP percentage is -0.806. This made it possible to develop a forecast for a decrease in global GDP for 2025 and 2026 as a whole by -2.2%. The forecast value of annual GDP growth in 2025 around the world is 2.32%. The next years of high economic growth are expected to be 2027, 2028, and 2029, with projected annual global GDP growth of 4.38, 4.29, and 3.85 (%), respectively.

JEL-codes: G17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bas:econth:y:2026:i:1:p:84-93

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