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An Operational Framework for a Low-carbon, Green Growth Economy: CO-STIRPAT Dynamic System

Ick Jin
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Ick Jin: Director General, Economic Analysis Department of the National Assembly Budget Office, Seoul, Korea

Journal of Economic Analysis, 2024, vol. 3, issue 4, 83-100

Abstract: This paper presents an operational framework for assessing the trajectories of production, energy, emissions, and capital accumulation to ensure the implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). The framework combines widely used methodologies (STIRPAT, system dynamics, and optimization) to simulate the pathways of variables until a target year. The CO-STIRPAT dynamic system allows us to identify the spillover pathways from carbon policy to economic growth based on output optimization principles; to conduct a more systematic analysis of the interconnections between the main drivers that determine carbon emissions; to develop a cost-effective climate policy mix that is a backbone for the right combination of carbon pricing, energy efficiency, and carbon intensity; and to assess NDC targets with respect to ambition gaps, implementation gaps, and feasibility.

Keywords: Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs); STIRPAT, carbon emission; energy efficiency; carbon intensity; system dynamics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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