The Art and Science of Forecasting the Real Price of Oil

Christiane Baumeister

Bank of Canada Review, 2014, vol. 2014, issue Spring, 21-31

Abstract: Forecasts of the price of crude oil play a significant role in the conduct of monetary policy, especially for commodity producers such as Canada. This article presents a range of recently developed forecasting models that, when pooled together, can generate, on average, more accurate forecasts of the price of oil than the oil futures curve. It also illustrates how policy-makers can evaluate the risks associated with the baseline oil price forecast and how they can determine the causes of past oil price fluctuations.

Date: 2014
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