Ascertaining the Optimal Population Growth Threshold for Nigeria’s Economic Development

Supper Roland Okijie and Ubong Edem Effiong
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Supper Roland Okijie: Department of Sociology and Anthropology, University of Uyo, P.M.B. 1017, Uyo, Akwa, Ibom State, Nigeria
Ubong Edem Effiong: Department of Economics, University of Uyo, P.M.B. 1017, Uyo, Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria

International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, 2021, vol. 5, issue 6, 43-50

Abstract: This paper sought to study the demographic dynamics in the Nigerian economy as it affects the development process of the country. The study specifically investigated the determining factors of population growth in Nigeria, along with the effect of infant mortality on fertility rate. The study employed the ordinary least squares regression and threshold regression analysis in achieving the set objectives. The data for the study were obtained from World Development Indicators and they covered the period of 1970 to 2017. The result of the study revealed that the determining factors of population growth in Nigeria are crude birth rate and infant mortality rate. Also, a positive and significant effect of infant mortality on fertility rate was observed. The optimal threshold of crude birth rate was obtained to be 41.62%, while the optimal population growth level that is sustainable for economic development was estimated to be 2.50%. The paper concluded that there is need to maintain an optimal population growth that will be consistent with the available resources is sustainable economic development is to be achieved.

Date: 2021
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