Spatiotemporal Variations of Rainfall Over Nigeria from 1971 to 2020

Nnodu Ifeanyi Daniel and Magaji Joshua Ibrahim
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Nnodu Ifeanyi Daniel: Department of Geography, Nasarawa State University, Keffi, Nigeria
Magaji Joshua Ibrahim: Associate Professor Department of Geography, Nasarawa State University, Keffi, Nigeria

International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, 2024, vol. 8, issue 7, 1374-1390

Abstract: The impact of climate change on annual rainfall has received significant attention from scholars worldwide. Many studies have been conducted to demonstrate that changes in annual rainfall are becoming evident globally. This study focused on detecting trends in annual rainfall in six stations in Nigeria: Calabar, Lagos, Enugu, Abuja, Kano, and Maiduguri. Three different widely used nonparametric methods of Mann-Kendall, Innovative Trend Analysis, Sen’s Slope Estimation, and a Linear Trend Analysis method were used on time series data for each of the stations for 50 years (1971 to 2020) to detect trends and estimate the magnitudes in annual rainfall at a 5% significance level. Water availability is essential for agriculture, industry, irrigation, power generation, and other human activities. Therefore, the amount of rainfall received in an area is crucial in assessing water availability. This study analysed trend values of annual rainfall and found that the Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) is more effective in detecting trends than the Mann-Kendall (MK) method. The results obtained from ITA, Sen’s Slope Estimation (SSE), and Linear Trend Analysis (LTA) showed good agreement. The Sen’s slope estimator determined the magnitudes of the trends. All stations except Abuja showed statistically significant increasing trends. The linear trend plot also indicated a decreasing trend for Abuja, while the other five stations had an increasing trend that ranged from 0.44 to 1.02 mm/year. This agrees well with global climate model estimates which predict that increasing trends will continue throughout the 21st century in most West African countries.

Date: 2024
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