The Impact of China’s Aging Population on Real Estate Prices – Based on 31 Provinces in China

Wu Guixian and Doris Padmini Selvaratnam
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Wu Guixian: Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia
Doris Padmini Selvaratnam: Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia

International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, 2025, vol. 9, issue 15, 263-280

Abstract: Housing and aging are both major issues that China needs to solve today. China’s real estate market continues to heat up, and the real estate industry has gradually become a pillar industry that affects China’s national economy. The central core of real estate market growth consists of both supply and demand. At present, the elasticity of China’s real estate supply market is low, and the demand market dictates the behavior of the real estate market to a greater degree. The main body of housing demand is people, and population factors are one of the basic core factors affecting housing prices. Aging is an important indicator of population structure. Today, China’s population aging is deepening year by year, and it has become an important trend in social development, which will have a profound impact on the future real estate market. As aging deepens and the number of older persons increases, the need for new housing is likely to wane, while the demand for elderly care real estate, community services and other fields will increase, triggering structural changes in the real estate market. In this regard, based on the social phenomenon of rising house prices and an aging population in China, this article deeply analyzes the internal mechanism of how an aging population affects housing prices in China, which is not only conducive to optimizing the population structure and rationally coping with an aging population, but also helps to promote the sustainability of house prices. After combing through the literature on population aging and housing price fluctuations, this paper adopts a two-way fixed effect model and uses panel data from 31 provinces and cities in China from 2009 to 2019 to organize the analysis of how the aging population will affect the house prices. The empirical results show that as population aging deepens, it has a beneficial effect on the rise of house prices. Finally, the paper makes relevant policy recommendations to deliver the necessary reference and support for optimizing the population structure, rational development of the real estate market, and high-quality economic development.

Date: 2025
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