Banana Production Risk Zoning and Copula Based Income Insurance Rate Determination: a Case Study of Guangdong, China

Jianming Xie, Charuk Singhapreecha, Warattaya Chinnakum and Kittawit Autchariyapanitkul
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Jianming Xie: Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, 50200, Thailand
Charuk Singhapreecha: Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, 50200, Thailand
Warattaya Chinnakum: Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, 50200, Thailand
Kittawit Autchariyapanitkul: Faculty of Economics, Maejo University, Chiang Mai 50290, Thailand

International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, 2025, vol. 9, issue 1, 3816-3828

Abstract: This study explores the risk characteristics and regional differences in banana production in 21 cities in Guangdong Province through cluster analysis and kernel density estimation. Based on statistical analysis and optimal clustering number selection, cities are divided into three categories: high, medium, and low-risk areas, reflecting the characteristics of resource dependent, economic core, and technological innovation cities, respectively. The estimation of kernel density function reveals the concentration and tail characteristics of production and price distribution in different risk areas. By analyzing the dependence relationship between price and output through the Copula model, t Copula and Frank Copula performed well in high-risk and medium risk areas, respectively. The insurance pricing results show that the premium rate in high-risk areas is more sensitive to changes in coverage, reflecting the significant impact of differences in risk distribution on insurance design. This study provides important references for regional risk management and insurance product optimization.

Date: 2025
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