Survival Prediction of Nigerian Listed Agriculture Companies: The Use of Altman Z-Score Models

Olabisi Michael Oyinlola, Oladosu Jimoh Balogun, Oyetayo Oyewale Folajin, Nafisat Toyosi Muhammed and Oladipo Oluwafolakemi Fasesin
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Olabisi Michael Oyinlola: Osun State Polytechnic, Osun State, Nigeria
Oladosu Jimoh Balogun: Osun State Polytechnic, Osun State, Nigeria
Oyetayo Oyewale Folajin: Osun State Polytechnic, Osun State, Nigeria
Nafisat Toyosi Muhammed: Osun State Polytechnic, Osun State, Nigeria
Oladipo Oluwafolakemi Fasesin: Osun State Polytechnic, Osun State, Nigeria

International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, 2025, vol. 9, issue 14, 746-759

Abstract: Corporate survival is a source of major worry in the business world, particularly in light of unprecedented corporate failure as no investor wants their hard-earned financial fortunes wiped out in bankruptcy. This study aims to forecast the survival status of the extant Nigerian listed agricultural companies by adapting the popular Altman (1968) Z-score and Altman (1983) Z†-score models. The study was carried out on five (5) Nigerian companies in agricultural sector listed in NGX Group and worked on ex-post facto research design, in which case panel data, otherwise called longitudinal data, on the selected companies was collected from their annual reports and accounts as published in their respective websites for the period 2019 – 2023 complemented with data from NGX Group database. Furthermore, market prices of the companies’ shares were extracted from https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/DownloadsContent/. This study adopted two models credited to Prof. Edward Altman with the use of Multiple Discriminants Analysis (MDA). Data were analyzed data using statistical techniques, such as logits to determine the corporate survival probability. Data analysis was also powered by Microsoft Excel. Though there are mixed results, findings reveal that the Altman’s Z-score model is adjudged to be stronger in predicting the financial healthiness of Nigerian agriculture industry that Altman (1983) Z†-score. The study therefore recommends that the companies’ managements should scale up their activities that will ensure improved revenue through the engagement of modern technologies and the service of research consultants.

Date: 2025
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