Bifurcation Analysis on a Macroeconometric Model for Turkey’s Economy

Unal Eryilmaz

Journal of BRSA Banking and Financial Markets, 2021, vol. 15, issue 2, 289-310

Abstract: Bifurcation theory is an important tool for the analysis of dynamical systems. Dynamic macroeconomic systems can exhibit certain types of bifurcation when parameter values change under certain conditions. In this study, using the Quarterly Macroeconomic Model of Turkish Economy developed by Aysoy and Kýpýcý (2005), the determinants causing the bifurcations in the Turkish economy are examined. It has been observed that the Model exhibits steady-state and period-doubling 2 bifurcations when the predicted parameters are changed within 95% confidence interval. While the change in the inflation rate parameter causes both types of bifurcation, the changes in the devaluation rate and the expected inflation parameters only cause steady-state bifurcation

Keywords: Bifurcation; Saddle-Node bifurcation; Period-Doubling bifurcation; Co-Dimension 1; Turkish economy. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C14 C22 E61 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bdd:journl:v:15:y:2021:i:2:p:289-310

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