USE OF QUANTITATIVE RATIOS FROM THE SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS IN PREDICTING PRICE BUBBLES ON THE HOUSING MARKET

Ivana Jovanović

Ekonomske ideje i praksa, 2021, issue 43, 45-54

Abstract: One of the main causes of the economic and sovereign debt crisis in 2010 – 2012 in some European countries like the United Kingdom, Spain and Ireland was the bursting of the residential market price bubble that was formed in the previous period. In this paper, a specific methodology of indicator analysis of the System of National Accounts and other data has been analyzed if it can help identify and prevent forming of some possible future price bubbles at the residential market, and therefore negative macroeconomic consequences of their bursting. Comparative indicator analysis and critical values suggest measurements of excessive construction activity that led to forming of price bubbles on the residential market. Econometric analysis has shown that it is not possible to establish critical values as variable of interest is not statistically significant.

Keywords: national accounts; residential market price bubble; indicator analysis; binary variable models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E01 H63 R31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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