 STRUCTURE AND USE OF THE MEDIUM-TERM PROJECTION MODEL IN THE NATIONAL BANK OF SERBIAMirko Đukić, Jelena Momčilović and Ljubica Trajčev Economic Annals, 2011, vol. 56, issue 188, 32 – 61 Abstract: Medium-term projections are an important element of the decision-making process in the inflation-targeting regime that the National Bank of Serbia has been implementing for the past several years. The main goal of medium-term projections is to project the policy rate path that will ensure that inflation in the coming period moves close to the targeted inflation rate. The most important tool for medium-term projections is a new Keynesian macroeconomic model, which is a set of equations aiming to describe the price-formation mechanism in Serbia and the transmission channel of monetary policy to prices. The model is comprised of four main behavioural equations for inflation, exchange rate, output gap, and policy rate, and of a number of side behavioural equations and identities. The model in the current form has been used since the end of 2008 and is subject to regular adjustments and improvements. Keywords: medium-term projection model; inflation targeting (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:beo:journl:v:56:y:2011:i:188:p:32-61 Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from Access Statistics for this article Economic Annals is currently edited by Will Bartlett More articles in Economic Annals from Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade Contact information at EDIRC. |
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