 A COMPARISON OF THE VAR MODEL AND THE PC FACTOR MODEL IN FORECASTING INFLATION IN MONTENEGROMilena Lipovina-Božović Economic Annals, 2013, vol. 58, issue 198, 115-136 Abstract: Montenegro started using the euro in 2002 and regained independence in 2006. Its main economic partners are European countries, yet inflation movements in Montenegro do not coincide with consumer price fluctuations in the eurozone. Trying to develop a useful forecasting model for Montenegrin inflation, we compare the results of a three-variable vector autoregression (VAR) model, and a principle component (PC) factor model starting with twelve variables. The estimation period is January 2001 to December 2012, and the control months are the first six months of 2013. The results show that in forecasting inflation, despite a high level of Montenegrin economic dependence on international developments, more reliable forecasts are achieved with the use of additional information on a larger number of factors, which includes domestic economic activity. Keywords: Inflation forecasting; VAR model; factor model; principal component analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:beo:journl:v:58:y:2013:i:198:p:115-136 Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from Access Statistics for this article Economic Annals is currently edited by Will Bartlett More articles in Economic Annals from Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade Contact information at EDIRC. |
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