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THE DYNAMICS OF HOUSE PRICES AND FISCAL POLICY SHOCKS IN TURKEY

Mustafa Ozan Yıldırım and Özge Filiz Yağcıbaşı

Economic Annals, 2019, vol. 64, issue 220, 39 - 60

Abstract: This study examines the interaction between house prices and gov-ernment spending, mortgage interest rates, and gross domestic product in Turkey. The ARDL bounds test approach is applied to quarterly data covering the 2010:1–2017:4 period. Findings indicate that there is a statistically significant long-run and short-run cointegration between the two house price indexes and government spending, mortgage rates, and GDP. An increase in government spending has a statistically sig-nificant positive effect on house prices. The study also indicates that mortgage interest rate and GDP have a statistically signifi-cant effect on house prices.

Keywords: House Prices; Government Spending; Turkish Economy; Cointegration (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: R31 E44 C32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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