REVISITING THE ROLE OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY IN TURKEY’S EXPORTS: EVIDENCE FROM THE STRUCTURAL VAR APPROACH

Özge Barış-Tüzemen and Samet Tüzemen

Economic Annals, 2021, vol. 66, issue 231, 127 - 150

Abstract: The exchange rate is both an important economic variable when determining a country’s export volume and an indicator of its international competitiveness. This paper re-investigates the impact of real exchange rate volatility on Turkey’s exports using the structural vector autoregression method and monthly data from 2003:01 to 2019:12. Empirical evidence shows that real exchange rate and exchange rate volatility do not affect exports in Turkey. On the other hand, external income has had a slight effect on Turkey’s exports in the post-global-crisis period. The findings show that other factors which effect macroeconomic indicators in the Turkish economy should also be considered.

Keywords: exchange rate volatility; exports; SVAR; structural breaks; Turkey (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 F31 F4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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