 THE EFFECT OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON CONSUMER SAVINGS AND RETAIL SALES: EVIDENCE FROM A POSTCOMMUNIST TRANSITION ECONOMYArdian Harri, Drini Imami and Edvin Zhllima Economic Annals, 2022, vol. 67, issue 233, 39 - 60 Abstract: When coupled with strong external shocks such as COVID-19, the high levels of uncertainty that characterise fragile economies can have a strong impact on household consumption and saving behaviour. This paper analyses household consumption and saving behaviour in conjunction with COVID-19 in the context of a post-communist economy. Models and intervention analysis are used to identify the effect of catastrophic events such as the COVID-19 pandemic on two key macroeconomic measures for the Albanian economy. The findings show that the pandemic period caused a significant contraction of consumer spending and a significant increase in savings. Higher uncertainty appears to have been a key driver of such household behaviour. The effect on savings will endure in the long run, while retail trade is expected to recover. These findings call for a more astute use of fiscal and monetary policies to address the harmful emerging short-run effect of reduced household spending. Keywords: Albania; ARIMA modelling; catastrophic events; COVID-19 pandemic; intervention analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:beo:journl:v:67:y:2022:i:233:p:39-60 Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from Access Statistics for this article Economic Annals is currently edited by Will Bartlett More articles in Economic Annals from Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade Contact information at EDIRC. |
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