Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Volatility Models
Nicholas G Polson and
Peter Rossi ()
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2002, vol. 20, issue 1, 69-87
New techniques for the analysis of stochastic volatility models in which the logarithm of conditional variance follows an autoregressive model are developed. A cyclic Metropolis algorithm is used to construct a Markov-chain simulation tool. Simulations from this Markov chain converge in distribution to draws from the posterior distribution enabling exact finite-sample inference. The exact solution to the filtering/smoothing problem of inferring about the unobserved variance states is a by-product of our Markov-chain method. In addition, multistep-ahead predictive densities can be constructed that reflect both inherent model variability and parameter uncertainty. We illustrate our method by analyzing both daily and weekly data on stock returns and exchange rates. Sampling experiments are conducted to compare the performance of Bayes estimators to method of moments and quasi-maximum likelihood estimators proposed in the literature. In both parameter estimation and filtering, the Bayes estimators outperform these other approaches.
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations View citations in EconPapers (32) Track citations by RSS feed
There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it.
Journal Article: Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Volatility Models (1994)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:20:y:2002:i:1:p:69-87
Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
Access Statistics for this article
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics is currently edited by Jonathan H. Wright and Keisuke Hirano
More articles in Journal of Business & Economic Statistics from American Statistical Association
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Christopher F. Baum ().