A Benchmarking Approach to Forecast Combination

Abdelwahed Trabelsi and Steven C Hillmer

Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 1989, vol. 7, issue 3, 353-62

Abstract: This article is concerned with the development of a statistical model-based approach to optimally combine forecasts derived from an extrapolative model, such as an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series model, with forecasts of a particular characteristic of the same series obtained from independent sources. The methods derived combine the strengths of all forecasting approaches considered in the combinational scheme. The implications of the general theory are investigated in the context of some commonly encountered seasonal ARIMA models. An empirical example to illustrate the method is included.

Date: 1989
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:7:y:1989:i:3:p:353-62

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