All Forecasters Are Equal

Roy Batchelor ()

Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 1990, vol. 8, issue 1, 143-44

Abstract: From an analysis of the track records of U.S. economic forecasters, Stekler (1987) concluded that "all forecasters are not equal." This article shows that his result is based on an incorrectly defined test statistic. When a more appropriate test is conducted, the figures suggest that accuracy rankings are not significantly different from those that might be expected as a result of sampling error in a population of equally accurate forecasters.

Date: 1990
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