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Unit-Root Tests and the Statistical Pitfalls of Seasonal Adjustment: The Case of U.S. Postwar Real Gross National Product

Eric Ghysels ()

Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 1990, vol. 8, issue 2, 145-52

Abstract: Unit-root tests applied to the postwar seasonally adjusted quarterly gross national product series strongly support the null hypothesis of the presence of a unit root in the data-generating process. Evidence reported here with seasonally unadjusted data is far less conclusive. It is explained why seasonal-adjustment procedures may alter the outcome of conventional tests.

Date: 1990
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