The Reliability of U.S. Gross National Product

Frank de Leeuw

Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 1990, vol. 8, issue 2, 191-203

Abstract: Two aspects of reliability--revisions and errors--need separate analysis. Revisions in gross national product (GNP) estimates are large in relation to the size of changes that matter to businesses and policymakers; nevertheless, preliminary estimates convey a lot of information about what the revised estimates will show. Errors in GNP estimates can plausibly be either larger or smaller than revisions. The distinction between gathering errors and adjustment errors helps us understand (1) the absence of any measure of the size of GNP errors and (2) the ways in which national-income statisticians go about reducing errors. These ideas suggest several guidelines for improving GNP estimates.

Date: 1990
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