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The contribution of cyclical turning point indicators to business cycle analysis

Laurent Ferrara ()

Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, 2008, issue 13, 49-61

Abstract: Two indicators are proposed: the fi rst is the probabilistic indicator of the acceleration cycle (IPCA – indicateur probabiliste du cycle d’accélération), which aims to detect economic acceleration and deceleration phases. The second is the probabilistic industrial recession indicator (IPRI – indicateur probabiliste de récession industrielle), which aims to estimate the probability of a recession in the industrial sector.

Keywords: economic cycles; turning points; acceleration cycle; probabilistic indicators; Markov chain models. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 C51 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
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