LATCOIN: determining medium to long-run tendencies of economic growth in Latvia in real time

Konstantins Benkovskis

Baltic Journal of Economics, 2010, vol. 10, issue 2, 27-48

Abstract: This paper presents a method of estimating the current state of Latvia’s economy. The evaluation object is medium to long-run growth of real GDP, but not actual GDP itself, which helps to filter out various one-off effects and focus on medium and long-run tendencies. Our indicator, called LATCOIN (Latvia’s Business Cycle Coincidence Indicator), could be viewed as a simple adaptation of new EUROCOIN for Latvia with some changes in methodology. LATCOIN is a monthly estimate of the medium to long-run growth of Latvia’s real GDP, which is produced on the 9th working day of the next month. Using a large panel of macroeconomic variables, a few smooth unobservable factors describing the economy are constructed. Further, these factors are used for the estimation of LATCOIN.

Keywords: Latvia's real GDP; band-pass filter; coincidence indicator; generalised principal components; real-time performance (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C50 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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Working Paper: LATCOIN: Determining Medium to Long-Run Tendencies of Economic Growth in Latvia in Real Time (2010)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bic:journl:v:10:y:2010:i:2:p:27-48

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