Economics at your fingertips  

Early warning indicators of banking crises: expanding the family

Iñaki Aldasoro, Claudio Borio and Mathias Drehmann ()

BIS Quarterly Review, 2018

Abstract: Household and international debt (cross-border or in foreign currency) are a potential source of vulnerabilities that could eventually lead to banking crises. We explore this issue formally by assessing the performance of these debt categories as early warning indicators (EWIs) for systemic banking crises. We find that they do contain useful information. In fact, over the more recent subsample, for household and cross-border debt indicators the information is similar to that of the more commonly used aggregate credit variables regularly monitored by the BIS. Confirming previous work, combining these indicators with property prices improves performance. An analysis of current global conditions based on this richer information set points to the build-up of vulnerabilities in several countries.

JEL-codes: E37 E44 F34 G21 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (60) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link) (application/pdf) (text/html)

Related works:
Journal Article: Early warning indicators of banking crises: expanding the family (2018)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link:

Access Statistics for this article

BIS Quarterly Review is currently edited by Christian Upper

More articles in BIS Quarterly Review from Bank for International Settlements Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Christian Beslmeisl ().

Page updated 2023-05-18
Handle: RePEc:bis:bisqtr:1803e