Global growth: drivers and post-pandemic prospects

Gabriela Nodari, Daniel Rees and Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul

BIS Quarterly Review, 2022

Abstract: As the global economy emerges from the disruptions of the Covid-19 pandemic, attention is turning to growth prospects. We project growth over the next two decades by modelling supply-side drivers at the country and industry levels for 33 advanced economies (AEs) and emerging market economies (EMEs). Our analysis suggests that, on pre-pandemic labour productivity growth trends, the global economy would grow by roughly 2.7% per year, driven by EMEs. This outcome is subject to a degree of uncertainty. We quantify the growth impact of three scenarios: persistent pandemic-induced structural changes, a housing market-induced recession and a green energy transition. Our analysis underscores the importance of structural reforms and policies to reinvigorate the supply-side drivers of growth.

JEL-codes: C54 E27 O47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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