Evolving approaches to monetary policy communication in the face of uncertainty: fan charts, scenarios and guidance

Sarah Bell, Matthieu Chavaz, Boris Hofmann, Daniel Rees and Matthias Rottner

BIS Quarterly Review, 2026

Abstract: The elevated and rapidly shifting nature of uncertainty in recent years has posed challenges for central bank communication. In particular, central banks have had to reconsider how to communicate the economic outlook and the monetary policy response. They have expanded their communications toolkit to explain uncertainty about the outlook and are increasingly using scenario analysis to complement traditional tools like fan charts and qualitative risk discussions. Fewer central banks are providing descriptive policy guidance; instead more are publishing their own policy rate projections, often in the context of alternative scenarios.

JEL-codes: D81 E17 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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