Effectiveness of the policy of state regulation of the economy of ukraine during martial arts

Olga Harshyna, Tetiana Baulina, Tetiana Solomko and Oleksandr Rudakov
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Olga Harshyna: Higher Education Institution «Academician Yuriy Bugay International Scientific and Technical University»
Tetiana Baulina: Donbas Institute of Technology and Management of the Higher Education Institution «International Scientific and Technical University named after Academician Yuri Bugay»
Tetiana Solomko: Higher Education Institution «Academician Yuriy Bugay International Scientific and Technical University»
Oleksandr Rudakov: Higher Education Institution «Academician Yuriy Bugay International Scientific and Technical University»

Economic Synergy, 2026, issue 1, 117-133

Abstract: The article substantiates the assessment of the effectiveness of the policy of state regulation of the economy of Ukraine during the Russian-Ukrainian war. Based on the statistical analysis of macroeconomic indicators, reverse trends in their dynamics were identified compared to the peace period: consumer spending grew much more slowly than GDP, the gap between them per capita was growing; GDP increased due to increased consumer spending and militarization of the economy, its growth was largely inflationary and was non-inclusive. A significant reduction in foreign direct investment was recorded; domestic sources of investment exceeded foreign ones by approximately 6-7 times. A slowdown in the growth rate of labor productivity and an increase in the growth rate of average wages were detected, as well as an increase in the gap between the absolute values of indicators per capita. An increase in the gap between labor productivity indicators and real incomes per capita was proven. It was determined that the reasons for the fall in real incomes are high inflation and an increase in the unemployment rate, which are the consequences of the low quality of economic regulation; GDP growth did not ensure an increase in real incomes of the population. The increase in the share of budget expenditures in Ukraine's GDP was recorded by more than 2 times to the level of 60% and approaching the effect of crowding out private investments. The conclusion was made about the weak effectiveness of regulatory policy during martial law: of all the main goals of economic development, only moderate GDP growth was achieved, which only in the fourth year of the war reached the pre-war level. It is proposed to attract foreign direct investment to regions with a lower level of danger in the west of the country, while simultaneously introducing real incentives for foreign companies; introducing long-term investment programs for the restoration of the energy sector, optimizing supply chains, and developing a system of incentives for employers to eliminate regional disparities in the labor market.

Keywords: state regulation of the economy; gross domestic product; consumer spending; foreign direct invest-ment; investment multiplier; labor productivity; real income of the population; average wage; unem-ployment rate; inflation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E64 H56 H6 J2 J6 O4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bja:isteus:y:2026:i:1:p:117-133

DOI: 10.53920/ES-2026-1-8

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