A systemic architecture for the antifragile development of ukraine’s agro-industrial complex through strategic planningof enterprises’ foreign economic activity in the context of global market shocks

Anastasiia Olishevska and Damir Kulish
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Anastasiia Olishevska: Kherson Economic and Legal Institute
Damir Kulish: Kherson Economic and Legal Institute

Economic Synergy, 2026, issue 1, 160-173

Abstract: The article substantiates the theoretical and methodological foundations for forming a systemic architecture of the antifragile development of Ukraine's agro-industrial complex under structural shocks in global food markets. Taleb's concept of antifragility is adapted to the agricultural context: unlike resilience and adaptability, antifragility implies a positive response to volatility – the system does not merely recover from a shock but acquires new competencies. The relevance of the study is confirmed by statistical evidence: in 2022–2023, Ukraine's agro-exports declined from USD 27.8 to 22.4 billion, FDI in the agro-industrial sector dropped by 34%, and logistics costs increased 2.3-fold. The article identifies four interrelated components of the antifragile development architecture: risk diagnostics, adaptive resource provision, market and logistics transformation, and institutional recovery. Particular attention is given to foreign economic activity mechanisms: export market diversification, EU standards harmonisation, FDI attraction, and trade diplomacy. A scenario model is proposed encompassing inertial, adaptive, and modernisation trajectories.

Keywords: agro-industrial complex; antifragility; anti-crisis management; strategic planning; foreign economic activity; structural shocks; food markets; logistics; competitiveness; scenario modeling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: M11 O13 Q13 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bja:isteus:y:2026:i:1:p:160-173

DOI: 10.53920/ES-2026-1-11

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