SCENARIO-ADAPTIVE STRATEGIC PLANNING OF FOREIGN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY OF ENTERPRISES UNDER CONDITIONS OF GLOBAL INSTABILITY

Olga Garafonova, Damir Kulish and Valentyna Pokotylova
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Olga Garafonova: Kyiv National Economic University named after Vadym Hetman
Damir Kulish: Kherson Institute of Economics and Law
Valentyna Pokotylova: Kherson District Council

Economic Synergy, 2026, issue 2, 8-21

Abstract: The article examines the theoretical and methodological foundations of scenario-adaptive strategic planning of foreign economic activity of enterprises under conditions of global instability. It is substantiated that the traditional logic of strategic planning of foreign economic activity, based on relatively stable assumptions regarding external markets, logistics, currency conditions, and the regulatory environment, is losing managerial effectiveness under conditions of military risks, geo-economic turbulence, supply chain disruptions, and changes in the international market environment. Scenario-adaptive planning is proposed to be considered as an integrated management framework that combines strategic diagnostics, the development of alternative scenarios for foreign economic activity, budget planning, risk monitoring, personnel and organizational readiness, and mechanisms for the regular adjustment of strategic decisions. The scientific novelty lies in clarifying the essence of the scenario-adaptive approach to the strategic planning of foreign economic activity and in developing a model for its implementation at the enterprise level. The practical significance of the results consists in the possibility of using the proposed tables and models for the preliminary assessment of enterprise readiness for foreign economic activity, the selection of scenarios for entering foreign markets, and the formation of an adaptive management system for foreign economic activity.

Keywords: foreign economic activity; strategic planning; scenario approach; adaptive management; global instability; enterprise; risks; export strategy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F23 M16 M21 O32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bja:isteus:y:2026:i:2:p:8-21

DOI: 10.53920/ES-2026-2-1

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