Forecasting Inflation Rate Using the ARIMA Model: Zambia’s Perspective from 2023 to 2043

Julius Zulu, Gardner Mwansa and Kenny Changwe
Additional contact information
Julius Zulu: The Bed-Rock Research Consultancy, Department of Research Services, Lusaka, Zambia
Gardner Mwansa: Walter Sisulu University, Department of Information Technology, South Africa
Kenny Changwe: Kabamba Secondary School, Serenje, Zambia

International Journal of Research and Scientific Innovation, 2024, vol. 11, issue 12, 698-713

Abstract: The study sought to forecast Zambia’s inflation rate from 2023 to 2043 using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA). Using the Box–Jenkins modeling method, the study utilized 37 yearly time series data from 1986 to 2022 to forecast the next 20 years by using ARIMA Model. The ARIMA (4, 1, 2) model was used as being the one with the most significant parameters, the least log likelihood, Sigma, and the least Akaike and Bayesian information criteria. The ARIMA (4, 1, 2) model was also used due to its accuracy, mathematical soundness, and flexibility, thanks to the inclusion of AR and MA terms over a regression analysis. The results show that the value of the Zambia’s inflation rate is predicted to rise by 47.27% in 20 years.

Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.rsisinternational.org/journals/ijrsi/d ... issue-12/698-713.pdf (application/pdf)
https://rsisinternational.org/journals/ijrsi/artic ... e-from-2023-to-2043/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bjc:journl:v:11:y:2024:i:12:p:698-713

Access Statistics for this article

International Journal of Research and Scientific Innovation is currently edited by Dr. Renu Malsaria

More articles in International Journal of Research and Scientific Innovation from International Journal of Research and Scientific Innovation (IJRSI)
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Dr. Renu Malsaria ().