Development of a Probabilistic Cost Model for Well Intervention Cost Estimation

Morgan Manuchim Wopara, Joseph Ajienka, Alwell Nteegah and Erasmus Nnanna
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Morgan Manuchim Wopara: Emerald Energy Institute (EEI), University of Port Harcourt, Rivers State, Nigeria.
Joseph Ajienka: Emerald Energy Institute (EEI), University of Port Harcourt, Rivers State, Nigeria.
Alwell Nteegah: Emerald Energy Institute (EEI), University of Port Harcourt, Rivers State, Nigeria.
Erasmus Nnanna: Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria, Port Harcourt, Nigeria.

International Journal of Research and Scientific Innovation, 2024, vol. 11, issue 5, 1007-1019

Abstract: Accurate cost estimates are crucial for assessing the commercial viability and business case of well intervention projects, considering the limited available resources. This study presents the development of a comprehensive cost estimation model tailored specifically for rigless well intervention projects. We used the probabilistic approach to develop a cost estimation model for well intervention to achieve the research objective. The developed cost model was transformed into a computer program using pseudocodes in the C-Sharp programming language. The costs of well interventions performed on five (5) wells were used to validate the well intervention cost estimation software. We compared the cost estimation results using the Well Intervention Cost Estimation software and an existing deterministic cost estimate. For every cost estimate that the software generates, three probabilistic values are calculated (P90, P50 and P10). The cost-estimating application resulted in a higher cost than the deterministic estimate because it accounted for project uncertainties. As a result of implementing this cost estimation model, oil and gas industry cost analysts can optimize resource allocation, improve project planning, and mitigate financial risks associated with well interventions, thus improving operational efficiency and profitability.

Date: 2024
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