Comparative Analysis of the Contribution of the Agricultural Sector to the Gross Domestic Product of Ghana: Before and Within COVID-19 Pandemic

Christiana C. Nyarko, Michael Affam and Samuel K. Obeng
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Christiana C. Nyarko: University of Mines and Technology, Tarkwa, Ghana
Michael Affam: University of Mines and Technology, Tarkwa, Ghana
Samuel K. Obeng: University of Mines and Technology, Tarkwa, Ghana

International Journal of Research and Scientific Innovation, 2022, vol. 9, issue 6, 07-11

Abstract: This paper seeks to analyse the trend of contributions of the Agriculture sector to the GDP of Ghana. A Time Series analysis was used to forecast the quarterly contributions of the Agricultural sector to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Ghana from 2008 to 2019. The paper also compared contribution of the agricultural sector to the GDP before and during the COVID-19 era using data ranging from first quarter of 2018 through to third quarter of 2020 in millions of Ghana cedis from the Ghana Statistical Service. Results indicate that ARIMA (2, 1, 2) model was found to be the most suitable model with the least Normalised Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Akaike Information Criterion values. It was further observed that the two – year forecast values of the model shows an increase in the subsequent years to the GDP of Ghana. However, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the GDP from the Agricultural sector dwindled from 15,569.5 million Ghana cedis in the first quarter of 2019 to 12,080.10 million Ghana cedis in the second quarter of 2020. The differences between the first and second quarters from 2018 to 2020 were statistically significant at 95% confidence level. Although it picked up in the third quarter of 2020, it was just slightly higher than what it used to record pre-COVID-19 era.

Date: 2022
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