Forecasting Gold Prices through ARIMA Model

Sabiha Oltulular
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Sabiha Oltulular: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan University, Türkiye

International Journal of Research and Innovation in Applied Science, 2025, vol. 10, issue 1, 52-62

Abstract: Gold, a symbol of trust beyond time that has defied changing civilizations and financial systems for centuries, has maintained its value in every period and continues to be important for individuals and countries in every corner of the world. Gold is used not only as a store of value but also as a tool for creating economic and political power. In this study, the monthly price movements of the Türkiye economy between 1980-2024 were modeled, and it was aimed to predict the gold prices for 2025 based on these data. Autoregressive Integrated Moving among the Average (ARIMA) models, the ARIMA (4, 1, 3) model, is seen to be the best model according to Akaike information criteria. In 2025, it is predicted that gold price in Türkiye will increase on a monthly basis, although there may be daily fluctuations.

Date: 2025
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